In particular, it is assumed that cl imate change is effective in the last two or thre e decades.Because solar energy directs hydro-meteorological events and increasing variations in this resource change the balance between events such as evaporation, wind, and rainfall.
There are many methods for calculating trends in a time series such as Mann-Kendall, Sens slope estimator, Spearmans rho, linear regression and the new Sen innovative trend analysis (ITA). In addition, Mann-Kendalls variant, the sequential Mann Kendall, has been developed to identify trend change points; however, it is sensitive to related data as specified by some researchers. In the literature, multiple, half-time and multi-durations ITA methods are used to calculate partial trends in a time series without identifying trend change points. In this study, trend change points are detected using the enITA method and named ITATCP. Diyarbakr (Turkey) is selected as a study area, and ITATCP has detected trends and trends change points in monthly average temperatures. Although ITA detects only a significant upward trend in August, given the 95 statistical significance level, ITATCP shows three upward trends in June, July and August, and a decreasing trend in September. Critical trend slope values are obtained using the bootstrap method, which does not require the normal distribution assumption. Statistical information about of Diyarbakr city average monthly temperatures. ITA trend parameters for Diyarbakr monthly temperatures between 1971 and 2008. Figures - uploaded by Sadk Alashan Author content All figure content in this area was uploaded by Sadk Alashan Content may be subject to copyright. Level C Sub Ita Free Public FullDiscover the worlds research 20 million members 135 million publications 700k research projects Join for free Public Full-text 1 Content uploaded by Sadk Alashan Author content All content in this area was uploaded by Sadk Alashan on Jun 06, 2020 Content may be subject to copyright. Abstract Trends in temperature series are the main cause of climate change. Because solar energy directs hydro - meteorological events and increasing variations in this resource change the balance between events such as evaporation, wind, and rainfal l. There are many methods for calculating tre nds in a time serie s such as Man n - Kendall, Sens slop e estimator, Sp earmans rho, lin ear regression and the new Sen innovative tren d analysis (ITA). In addition, Mann - Kendalls variant, the sequential Mann Kendall, has been developed to identify trend change points; however, it is sensitive to related data as specified by some researchers. In the litera ture, multiple, ha lf - time and multi - d urations ITA meth ods are used to calculate pa rtial trends in a time series with out identifying tren d change points. In this stu dy, trend change point s are detected using the en ITA method and named ITATCP. Diyarbakr (Turkey) is selected as a study area, and ITATCP has detected trends and trends change points in monthly average tem peratures. Altho ugh ITA detects only a significant upward trend in August, given the 95 statistical significance level, ITATCP shows three upward trends in June, July and August, and a decreasi ng trend in September. Critical trend slope values are obtained using the boo tstrap method, which does not require th e normal distribution assumption. Keywords: Climate change, trend, partial tr end, trend change point, en innovative trend analysis. Introduction Climate change makes itself feel more and more with the i ncreasing carbon level.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |